Horse Racing Systems and Betting Angles to Find Winners

By Paul John Coleman

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Some pro punters use speed rating some use systems based on weight. Others go on trainer form and jockey form. Others base their selections on class or recent form.
Many use a mix of different strategies to find value bets. To become good at picking horses requires years of study but you can make the process easier by using horse racing methods or systems for picking winners.

Many punters have asked me if horse racing computer software works. I tend to find that using software does not take into account things such as the changing going conditions or a trainer suddenly going through a bad patch. Most computer software is based on the current form of a horse so it may be worth trying in the higher class non-handicap races or group races. Some online racing websites even have a race simulator based on data from past performances to see what the most expected results of the race are.

There is no simple method that will make you a fortune overnight but there are some systems that will allow you to beat the bookmakers on a regular enough basis to make a long-term profit from the game.
Some angles that systems are based around are looking at horses that have been heavily backed from their early morning price. I look for a horse has halved in price from say 10/1 into 5/1. Price movements at the bigger festivals are worth an extra look.

Horse Racing Handicapping Secrets To Finding Winners

By Paul John Coleman

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The one thing I would advise new punters to do is to take notes every time you go racing. After a while keep going over your notes and you will find patterns emerging from them that you can base winning systems around.
A big priced winner going in could be something as simple as liking the heavy going or it hits form at a particular time of the year.
It amazes me how many gamblers do not take track conditions into consideration as this a massive factor.
Check horses previous results to see if it can handle the days going conditions.
Another area to watch for that finds plenty of winners are horses dropping down in class. Horses that drop down in class of three four grades are a big threat.

Good recent form is one of the main things I tend to look for in picking a winning horse. If a horse has not had a run within say 30 to 40 days I would be very wary of backing it.
Try to understand which horses running styles are suited for which types of races. Sprint races over five and six furlongs suit early speed horses.
Here is a check list for determining if a horse has winning credentials and whether to play or pass.
Determine which horse are the true contenders. If you cannot whittle the field down to two or three contenders then leave the race alone. It is probably too competitive.

Daily Double Bets and Rolling Doubles For Horse Racing

By Bill Peterson

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The daily double was one of the first exotic or gadget bets and is still very popular today. It used to only be found in the first two races on the program, but now some tracks offer what they call a "rolling double," meaning that the double may be played in more races throughout the card.
The double is about the simplest exotic bet. You pick the winner in the first race, the first half of the double, and then you pick the winner in the second race, or second half. You must have the winner in both halves to collect.

An alternative to playing a daily double is a parlay bet. When you parlay a bet you simply take all your winnings from the first race and place them on a horse in the next race.
Either a double or a parlay can add up quickly. If you wager $2 to win on a horse in the first race and it wins and you collect $12 which you then wager on another horse in a following race, you may multiply your $2 investment many times. For instance, if your choice in the second race of your parlay bet wins and pays $10 to win, you actually collect $60. Not bad for an initial wager of $2. Of course, the downside is that you have to pick two winners in a row.

Money Management Tips for Horse Racing Betting

By Bill Peterson

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While the skill of being able to accurately evaluate each horse's chances of winning is essential to making money betting on horses, the best handicapping in the world is useless if you can't also manage your money well. I often say that good money management will get you through a tough run at the races better than good handicapping will. When you think of wagering on horses as an investment, it only makes sense that how you use your bankroll is crucial to success.

It's the same in any other form of investing, after all, that's all investing really is, moving money around and putting it where it is most likely to earn a favorable return. So here are a few thoughts on using your bankroll the very best you can. If you've been handicapping the horse races and still losing money, you might want to think about improving your money management rather than trying to learn that next horse racing angle.

First of all, the number one reason that most businesses, including horse racing ventures, fail is being under funded. If you are betting with the rent money or making two dollar bets and hoping to make a living, it just isn't going to work. You must be realistic and understand the kind of money the successful professional handicappers spend in order to eke out a living.

If 10% is a good return for a horse player, how much do you need to wager in the course of a year in order to make $100,000? The answer is $1,000,000. That's a staggering sum for most people, but it's true. Of course, if you only wish to make $10,000 then you need only wager $100,000. For most people that figure is out of reach.

Horse Racing Handicapping Angles for Each Race Track

By Bill Peterson

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Recently I was asked by a handicapper if I could give some good angles for a track that he planned to play this winter. No matter what season it is, the best method I've found for dealing with track specific horse racing angles is to research the track models and trainer standings for that track.

There is a lot of information online about each track and many of them post last years top trainers and jockeys at the beginning of a new meet. Of course, for the track publicity department it's a matter of trying to generate interest in the rivalries at the track and also a way to help handicappers to watch certain trainers who may be good at dealing with the peculiarities of that racing venue.

One of the best things that you can do, if you want to cash a lot of winners at the horse races, is to keep notes or save your old racing programs. As I write this there is a book shelf behind me that is crammed full of old racing programs. When a new meet starts I like to look back over last year's programs to see if I can get a handle on how the track played last year and of who the stars were. I also like to note those trainers and jockeys who disappointed.

They say that living by looking over your shoulder is a bad thing to do, but trust me, when it comes to handicapping learning by your past mistakes is crucial to making money betting on horses. On the other hand, be flexible enough to realize that things can change. If a new trend develops, don't miss it.

Using Horse Racing Trainer Moves the Truth and Fiction for Handicappers

By Bill Peterson

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There's a lot of talk these days about making money betting on horses by using trainer moves. The suppliers of past performances often list them right along with a horses running lines, along with the actual ROI (return on investment) for the specific move. An example would be, down 2 classes +3.10, meaning that when that trainer drops a horse two levels in they win enough to make a tidy profit.

The only problem with this is that like all past performance information, it is a look at the past, not a glimpse into the future. Though you may be using past performances, what you're actually trying to do is to forecast what will happen today. Call it prognostication or fortune telling, or whatever you like, what you're doing is predicting the future.

The reasoning by many is that by looking at what the trainer did in the past you will be able to tell what he or she is likely to do today and of course, the same is true of the horses. The problem with that line of thought is that you can't predict what the bettors will do and their reluctance to back the conditioners other horses in similar situations is the reason they showed a positive ROI.

Are you starting to see where this is going? If you're sitting there reading that this trainer move has a positive expectancy you can bet your sweet racing form that a thousand other would-be handicappers are doing the same thing and thinking that it's going to be as easy as finding money in the street. Wrong.

Horse Racing Handicapping With Track Models and Speed

By Bill Peterson

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The track model is like a road map. It shows the most likely route to the winners circle, but not the only route. It tells you how most of the winners raced, including the beaten lengths at several calls as well as the running style of most of the winners. So in a 6 furlong race for older horses where most of the winners come from a little off the pace, the Early Presser (EP) runner might be 60% and the Early (E) runner might account for 20% of the winners.

That means that horses that take the lead or run very close to it in the early stages of the race win an incredible 80% of the time. That is a very strong speed bias. While that much of a speed bias is rare, it does happen. Speed biases in the 60-70% range are much more common. Don't think that all track models favor speed, however, because some also favor Presser (P) type runners or even Sustained (S) types.

Before you begin to handicap it's a good idea to find out what the track model is for the particular type race you're handicapping. Then evaluate each horse and determine its running style and a likely pace scenario in the race. Do not, however, only focus on the horses that fit the most common winning running style, because things don't always go as planned in a horse race.

The Best Horse Races to Handicap and Win Consistently

By Bill Peterson

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Before you begin any kind of venture in life, do you first try to figure out how difficult it will be to succeed at that endeavor? Successful people usually have this one character trait. They will try to do difficult things, but they will also find out how difficult those things are and then choose the ones that they think they really can succeed with, given their talents and abilities. They don't mind a challenge, but they hate wasted efforts on impossible tasks.

Now let's apply that to horse racing handicapping and think about how we can use that insight to succeed at picking enough winning horses to make a profit. I am assuming that's what you want to do. If, on the other hand, you just want to bet for the sake of a thrill and try to charm Lady Luck into paying you a visit, then you really don't need to read this horse racing article.

Each person who reads this article is an individual and I can't tell you how to personally succeed as a handicapper. I wish I could, but I can't and unless someone else knows you very well, he can't tell you how to succeed as a handicapper, either. You have talents and abilities and some knowledge that is specific to your own life experience.

For instance, there are probably race tracks that you are more familiar with than others and also maybe you've picked up knowledge about trainers, jockeys, and maybe even the owners of some of the horses and stables. That is all to your advantage if you can somehow make sense of it all and use it. I teach people how to handicap using the basics and some horse racing angles, but how you put it all together with your own talents is the key to success.

Diet Exercise and Horse Racing Handicapping - The Connection

By Bill Peterson

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It's amazing how people who handicap horse races spend so much time thinking about the physical condition of the horses and jockeys but who ignore their own health as a factor in success at the races. I know many people don't want to hear that their lifestyle has a direct impact on their success playing the races, but in my opinion, it does.

Horse races are contests. Horse racing handicapping is a contest as well. The person who bets into pari-mutuel pools is competing against all the other people who also bet into the pools. You aren't competing against the race track or horses, you're competing against other people who are doing the same thing you're doing -- trying to make a profit picking winners.

How smart and how well prepared you are will make a big difference, just as it does in any other contest. Professional poker players who play in tournaments know that fatigue plays a big part in finishing well. The players who are able to make good decisions at the end of the tournament are the ones who usually win. Physical fatigue leads to poor judgment and mental errors.

As a handicapper, your best tool is your mind. Physiologist will tell you that cognitive ability declines with poor health. Proper nutrition is a key to a clear well functioning mind. Exercise leads to better blood flow and almost everyone knows how important it is for your brain to get oxygen rich blood in order to function properly.

Just because you sit down to handicap a horse race, it doesn't mean that physical strength and stamina aren't necessary. Think of other contests and sports where the participants sit down and you'll see what I mean. NASCAR drivers sit down and drive a car. It certainly doesn't take much strength to turn a steering wheel, does it?

Horse Racing Handicapping Tip - How to Eliminate Horses From the Race

By Bill Peterson

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Sometimes the best way to describe what we do when we handicap a race is to say that we weed out the legitimate contenders from the phonies or horses that have no chance of winning. To be accurate, any runner in a race does have some chance, but the actual possibility may be so small that it isn't worth considering, that is, unless the odds are right.

As you handicap a horse race you try to put the horses in order from most likely winner to least likely winner. Then, if you really want to make a profit betting on horses, you wait and watch the odds and decide which runner offers the best value. Horse players must not only be good judges of horses, but they must also be good at picking the best bets.

In most races the top 4 horses in the odds, whether it be morning line odds or the odds you see on the tote board at five minutes to post, will include the winner of the race. If you want to save time you'll simply evaluate the top four or five morning line horses and set your own odds then bet them according to what the tote board tells you. Of course, there is always a price to be paid for convenience and speed. You may miss a good long shot bet among the other runners.

Therefore, I recommend that you go the extra distance and look closely at every horse in the race. If you don't have time to handicap all the races, then pick the most promising ones, according to how well you do in different types of races and handicap them first. When you handicap, here is what to look for when throwing out those horses who don't really stand a chance.

Par times are the actual times that horses average when winning at the distance and class. Par speeds are the same. Having a list of par times and speeds will help you to spot horses that have run at the par or higher before. Any horse that has done that should be considered. Any horse that hasn't is on the suspect list. In maiden races or races for horses who are working their way up through non-winner conditions, it is possible that the horse will improve and set a new lifetime par.

In races for older horses, however, those who have never done what is being asked today will probably not be able to win and may be put on the elimination list. Of those who may succeed by improving because they are young and growing, an upward trend in speed and ability should be present, otherwise, eliminate the horse. This is just one of several ways to eliminate horses from your list of contenders.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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Horse Racing Positions Affect the Outcome of a Race

By Bill Peterson

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Speed points are often used to determine where a horse will run or try to position itself during the early stages of a race. Speed points were the brainchild of a handicapper named Quirin who developed a simple but very useful method for determining where horses run during the early part of a race. If you've been handicapping for a while you probably know about speed points and also that early speed is critical, even in long races.

The old saying, "pace makes the race," is often true. However, pace and speed and position are not all the same. Let's say you have a horse with the top speed point rating of 8. That means the horse is a front runner and will try very hard to got to the front and stay ahead of all the other horses. The horse doesn't want to see another horse ahead of it.

The only problem is that while this one wants to lead, its best time in a quarter mile, the first fraction of the race, is only 24 seconds. There are other horses in the race with early speed who can run the quarter in 23. Now what happens to that front running horse? It will often wear itself out trying to get to the top and then fade in the later stages of the race unless the jockey can slow it down, getting it to "settle," as it is called. Front runners with speed points of 8 rarely want to settle for less than the front, however.

Good Horse Racing Systems Have One Factor in Common

By Bill Peterson

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In order to be successful at almost anything in life it is necessary to have a systematic method or way of doing things. There are rare exceptions to this rule, but the more repetitious the endeavor, the more likely it is that the successful people have found a system that works and they use it over and over again. Horse racing is a good example.

Trainers who are successful at getting their horses in condition and winning with them have a systematic way of conditioning the horses and then entering them to win. The horses themselves have a systematic way of running.

Some win by being front runners and others by coming from off the pace. Then there are those who come from far back and close with a rush, but the one thing they all have in common is that they use their own method over and over again.

The same can be said for people who bet on the horses. The really successful people who wager on horse races must work very hard and then there are no guarantees. It is one of the most difficult ways to make money, and yet a few rare souls actually do just that. Do you think that each time they win it is in a different way or that each one has found a method that works for him or her?

When Horse Racing Handicapping You Should Know the Percentage of Winning Favorites

By Bill Peterson

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Most people believe that the favorite wins a horse race about a third of the time. While many think that is common knowledge and use it to handicap horse races, it is such a broad statement that it often bears little truth. How can that be? You may ask.

The truth is that there are many different kinds of horse races over different surfaces and at a wide range of distances. The percentage of winning favorites, based on those factors, may be as low as a mere 10% to as high as 70%. While the average is somewhere in the middle and probably around a third, it still leaves a lot of room for adjustment and that is exactly what the smart handicapper needs to do.

You need to adjust your methods of evaluating horses and betting on horses in order to take advantage of the public's ability or lack of ability to pick winners. Certainly all the people who represent the public bettors don't bet on the same horse, but the largest percentage of their betting funds will be invested in the favorite.

At the time of the writing of this article, in 6 furlong races at the 25,000 claiming level for 3 year olds at Aqueduct over the inner track, just 10% of favorites have won those races. A full 80% of the winners have been at or below 5-1, however, which shows that second and third favorites have done very well. What does that tell the smart handicapper?

The Key Horse is Still the Secret to Any Good Horse Racing System

By Bill Peterson

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There are just so many ways to bet on horse races and so many ways to make money betting with a good horse racing system. Eventually, it all comes down to finding one good horse(s) to key on whether making a straight win bet or betting exotic wagers. Betting strategy is usually determined by the best value for the money.

For instance, once you have identified the contenders in the race, the next step is to arrive at an idea of how likely each one is to win. You may think horse A. has a 30% chance, horse B. a $25% chance and horse C. a $20% chance. The next step is to turn those percentages into dollar amounts, or pounds, or euros, or whatever the currency is that you are using to make your wagers.

Horse A. would need a payoff of approximately 5-2 to break even or to show a slight profit. Horse B. would require a payoff of at least 3-1 to break even and horse C. would need a payoff of 4-1. If you can't find the right odds in the win pools to make any one of them a good bet, the next place to look, obviously, is the exotic pools.

The Magic Horse Racing Betting Formula for Profit

By Bill Peterson

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There is no magic formula for picking winners, but there is a method of making a profit from horse racing bets. That may sound contradictory, but it's not, because there is a difference between picking winning horses and picking good bets. The difference between a horse player who looks for winners and a horse player who looks for good bets is the difference between a successful gambler and a gambler.

Regular gamblers take some comfort in being right and sometimes they even take comfort in commiserating with other losing gamblers. Winning gamblers take comfort in making a profit and usually keep their ROI and other secrets to themselves. You'll hear a lot of horse players complaining about how hard it is to make a profit or about the losing streak they're on, but you'll rarely if ever hear one talking about his positive return or method of picking those good bets.

Let's be clear on what a good bet is before we talk about the magic formula for determining that bet. A good wager is one that will show a positive return over the course of a season or a meet. That means that is you make the same bet under the same circumstances at the same track, it will pay you back all the money that you bet plus a profit.

I realize how difficult it is to find such bets, so please don't think I'm being glib. Making money wagering on horse races is one of the toughest things most of us will ever tackle. It requires certain skills, such as good math skills and the ability to keep accurate notes, whether by using a good computer program of just keeping hard copies that you jot down. Fortunately, a lot of the record keeping is now done by the major suppliers of past performances.

Finding Good Bets With Horse Racing Jockey Changes That Lead to Winners

By Bill Peterson

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Following a horse through its career is one way to cash winning tickets. Very few handicappers actually do this, but it is a solid way to make money betting on horses. Of course, you have to have some knowledge of training and horse racing to be successful. If you understand what a trainer is doing with a horse then you will understand that some races are for exercise and conditioning while other races are meant for a real serious effort to win.

The problem with that method of making money betting on horses is that you have to follow quite a few horses in order to make any real money. You may have to wait weeks between races and that can get tedious, especially if the horse is in races where it can't win.

That's why more handicappers follow trainers or jockeys. Most good jockeys race almost every day, making for a lot of action. Learning the strengths and weaknesses of a few good jockeys and then following them can lead to some very good bets. I like to check to see when a good rider is on a horse that he has won with in the past. That's a big advantage.

When a trainer claims a horse and his regular rider happens to be a jockey who has won with that one before, that can often signal a good ride and a finish in the money if not in the winners circle. Some of the leading suppliers of past performances now supply that information which shows whether the trainer has won with the horse and also whether the jockey has won with it in the past.

Most of the opportunities for good bets will come in the claiming races, if you decide to use this method of finding winners. Start by noting all the horses that have been claimed in their last few races. Then note who was riding it before it was claimed and whether the jockey who is on it today has won with it before. Note the same for the trainer.

Horse Racing Handicapping Strengths And Weaknesses Can Make You Or Break You

By Bill Peterson

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Horse racing handicapping is the kind of intellectual pursuit that requires so much effort and concentration, that we handicappers sometimes lose sight of some pretty important and fundamental factors. For instance, are you keeping a record of your bets and regularly checking to see where your strengths and weaknesses are? Do you know which bets or situations are profitable for you?

Even if you are a casual bettor who only occasionally attends the race track or otb, rating your own performance and trying to improve it will still give you more enjoyment and also help you to make a profit from racing. In any form of gambling there are many losers and a few consistent winners. One of the keys to that consistency is usually keeping track of where the money is going and how the gambler is faring in each category of bet.

For instance, a horse racing handicapper who is good at picking winners, but lousy at picking exactas, may be making a profit on winners, but throwing away the profit and some of his or her bankroll on exacta bets. Let's say our handicapper makes a $100 win bet and then plays 4 $10 exacta keys with the choice for winner on top of four other horses.

The Truth About Simple Methods for Picking Horse Racing Winners

By Bill Peterson

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Handicapping horse races can be a very time consuming and frustrating experience. In plain English, picking winners is one of the hardest things some of us ever try and most people lose money at the horse races. While some of us enjoy trying to solve the puzzle of a horse race, at the end of the day, when we've spent so much time and energy, only to have lost money, there is "...no joy in Mudville," as they say.

That's why some people give up and just use the odds on the tote board to try and pick winners. They figure, and rightly so, that the lower the odds on a horse the better its chances of winning. While that is true, it is also a fact that almost all horses go off at close to the correct odds and you will still lose whatever the track take out figure is for win bets at that track.

For instance, if you decide to bet the second favorite in each race and bet ten races, it will average out in the long haul that you've lost about whatever the track's percentage may be. It might vary a little one way or the other, but overall, you'll lose. While it's a nice simple method for picking winners, it's also financially unsound and results in a loss. Not a lot of fun, unless you can convince yourself that losing is fun.

There are simple ways to pick horses that are contenders. The odds show the horses who are likely contenders and at most race tracks the top four horses win about 70% of the races. A study of the different types of races will often show some disparities. For instance, in certain races for maidens the percentage of winning favorites is 40% and the average payoff is quite small.