When Horse Racing Handicapping You Should Know the Percentage of Winning Favorites

By Bill Peterson

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Most people believe that the favorite wins a horse race about a third of the time. While many think that is common knowledge and use it to handicap horse races, it is such a broad statement that it often bears little truth. How can that be? You may ask.

The truth is that there are many different kinds of horse races over different surfaces and at a wide range of distances. The percentage of winning favorites, based on those factors, may be as low as a mere 10% to as high as 70%. While the average is somewhere in the middle and probably around a third, it still leaves a lot of room for adjustment and that is exactly what the smart handicapper needs to do.

You need to adjust your methods of evaluating horses and betting on horses in order to take advantage of the public's ability or lack of ability to pick winners. Certainly all the people who represent the public bettors don't bet on the same horse, but the largest percentage of their betting funds will be invested in the favorite.

At the time of the writing of this article, in 6 furlong races at the 25,000 claiming level for 3 year olds at Aqueduct over the inner track, just 10% of favorites have won those races. A full 80% of the winners have been at or below 5-1, however, which shows that second and third favorites have done very well. What does that tell the smart handicapper?