Horse Racing Handicapping With Track Models and Speed

By Bill Peterson

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The track model is like a road map. It shows the most likely route to the winners circle, but not the only route. It tells you how most of the winners raced, including the beaten lengths at several calls as well as the running style of most of the winners. So in a 6 furlong race for older horses where most of the winners come from a little off the pace, the Early Presser (EP) runner might be 60% and the Early (E) runner might account for 20% of the winners.

That means that horses that take the lead or run very close to it in the early stages of the race win an incredible 80% of the time. That is a very strong speed bias. While that much of a speed bias is rare, it does happen. Speed biases in the 60-70% range are much more common. Don't think that all track models favor speed, however, because some also favor Presser (P) type runners or even Sustained (S) types.

Before you begin to handicap it's a good idea to find out what the track model is for the particular type race you're handicapping. Then evaluate each horse and determine its running style and a likely pace scenario in the race. Do not, however, only focus on the horses that fit the most common winning running style, because things don't always go as planned in a horse race.

Horse Racing Tips From the Stable Cat

By Bill Peterson

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Don't you wish you could get inside tips about the horses that would allow you to know when one was ready to win, or perhaps, when the favorite was off his feed and not likely to win? They used to say the stable cat was the best handicapper because he lived with the horses. That was probably true, but I've never seen a feline in the betting lines.

Inside information, however, can be dynamite, but you have to know how to get it and when to use it and when to pass it up. That comes down to discretion on your part. I've had a lot of trainers tell me their horse was a cinch to win, only to see it lose. Now when a trainer or owner tells me a horse is a sure thing, I know that the jockey will probably try to win with it, but that it can still be beaten because another trainer may feel the same way about his horse.

The truth of the matter is, thought the human connections may have their own ideas, the animals themselves are the real key to how they will race. The single most important tip you can get on any race is how the money is flowing and for that you have to watch the pools and know what to look for.

The second most important information is on the race track in front of you. I'm talking about the horses themselves. Being able to spot one that is washy or too dry and dull is one of the greatest assets a handicapper can have. Horse racing handicapping isn't just about the figures and past performance lines on paper. The real story, the present, not the past, is out on the track or in the paddock before the race.

Is Horse Racing Handicapping Easier With a Computer

By Bill Peterson

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The computer age has changed our lives in unimaginable ways. Who knew just a few decades ago that we would be carrying around phones that we could send messages with, surf the internet with, and use as a gps.
Those are just a few of the uses of today's modern techno gadgets that really do seem to make life easier. But do those gadgets enable us to handicap a race any better, and if so, are we making more money as handicappers?

In my experience the answer is that while we do have more information at our finger tips, there is still little profit to be made picking winners. It may be possible, but it isn't easy to make a profit betting on horses, and you're hearing that from a man who teaches people how to handicap the races. I make my living from horse racing, but I don't sugar coat it.

While the amount of information that is available has certainly increased, that information is available to any one who seeks it. The trick to making money betting on horse races isn't just to have more information, it is to have more and better information than the other guy or to use your information better than he does.

After all, let's be honest, we're each trying to beat the rest of the crowd when we bet on a race unless we're in a place where book making is legal, in which case we may be trying to beat an odds maker. Whatever the case may be, horse racing handicapping is about beating other people, being better at spotting a value bet, of evaluating the runners.

Separating Common Sense From Nonsense in Horse Racing Handicapping

By Bill Peterson

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If you've been going to the races for a while you've probably picked up a little horse racing lore and logic along the way. There are some things that most horse racing handicappers and horse players know that every body at the race track knows and uses to pick winners and find good bets. Fortunately, for a few people, that is, some of that so-called common sense or common knowledge, is hogwash. If you're using it, it could be costing you plenty.

Let's start with one tidbit of information that most horse players know and use when sizing up the runners and trying to find a good bet. "The favorites win about a third of the races."
I like to call this one of those situations where a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. If you look at all the races at a particular track, you will usually find that about 30%-35% are won by the betting favorite in the race. But for those punters who look at the odds board and spot the horse that has the most money bet on it and think that it has a one out of three chance of winning just because the crowd has made it the favorite, they're operating under false information.

The truth of the matter is that there is a wide disparity between winning favorites depending upon the kind of race in question. Breaking it down and looking more closely at the betting choice in each kind of race at almost any race track will reveal some races where the favorites win more than 50% of the races while in others the favorites win only about 10%.

That is a huge difference and if you're relying on the old saw that favorites win about a third of the time, you're in for a shock. Now let's look even closer at this common knowledge. The odds do make a difference, not just to the actual amount paid out to the winners, but also in predicting the horse's chances of winning the race. The lower the odds, the greater the runner's chances of winning.

The Best Horse Races to Handicap and Win Consistently

By Bill Peterson

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Before you begin any kind of venture in life, do you first try to figure out how difficult it will be to succeed at that endeavor? Successful people usually have this one character trait. They will try to do difficult things, but they will also find out how difficult those things are and then choose the ones that they think they really can succeed with, given their talents and abilities. They don't mind a challenge, but they hate wasted efforts on impossible tasks.

Now let's apply that to horse racing handicapping and think about how we can use that insight to succeed at picking enough winning horses to make a profit. I am assuming that's what you want to do. If, on the other hand, you just want to bet for the sake of a thrill and try to charm Lady Luck into paying you a visit, then you really don't need to read this horse racing article.

Each person who reads this article is an individual and I can't tell you how to personally succeed as a handicapper. I wish I could, but I can't and unless someone else knows you very well, he can't tell you how to succeed as a handicapper, either. You have talents and abilities and some knowledge that is specific to your own life experience.

For instance, there are probably race tracks that you are more familiar with than others and also maybe you've picked up knowledge about trainers, jockeys, and maybe even the owners of some of the horses and stables. That is all to your advantage if you can somehow make sense of it all and use it. I teach people how to handicap using the basics and some horse racing angles, but how you put it all together with your own talents is the key to success.

Diet Exercise and Horse Racing Handicapping - The Connection

By Bill Peterson

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It's amazing how people who handicap horse races spend so much time thinking about the physical condition of the horses and jockeys but who ignore their own health as a factor in success at the races. I know many people don't want to hear that their lifestyle has a direct impact on their success playing the races, but in my opinion, it does.

Horse races are contests. Horse racing handicapping is a contest as well. The person who bets into pari-mutuel pools is competing against all the other people who also bet into the pools. You aren't competing against the race track or horses, you're competing against other people who are doing the same thing you're doing -- trying to make a profit picking winners.

How smart and how well prepared you are will make a big difference, just as it does in any other contest. Professional poker players who play in tournaments know that fatigue plays a big part in finishing well. The players who are able to make good decisions at the end of the tournament are the ones who usually win. Physical fatigue leads to poor judgment and mental errors.

As a handicapper, your best tool is your mind. Physiologist will tell you that cognitive ability declines with poor health. Proper nutrition is a key to a clear well functioning mind. Exercise leads to better blood flow and almost everyone knows how important it is for your brain to get oxygen rich blood in order to function properly.

Just because you sit down to handicap a horse race, it doesn't mean that physical strength and stamina aren't necessary. Think of other contests and sports where the participants sit down and you'll see what I mean. NASCAR drivers sit down and drive a car. It certainly doesn't take much strength to turn a steering wheel, does it?

How to Tell a Good Horse Racing System From a Bad One

By D J Bromley

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Horse racing systems come in all shapes and sizes. You only have to enter the phrase "horse racing systems" into your web browser and it will come up with millions of matches. The problem is how you discover which offer a real chance of helping you make money from your betting and those which are only designed to make the promoter wealthy.

One rule of thumb that I tend to use is that the more they promise the less they are likely to give. We have all seen systems advertised that promise many thousands of pounds profit in a few days or weeks. These types of system are not for real punters, they are for the dreamers and those misguided people who still believe you can get something for nothing.

The first factor to look at is to look and see who is actually offering the system. Are they a well known "name" or somebody you have never heard of? In either case it is worth typing their name into your search engine and see if there are any comments, good or bad, about them on the web. One point to be careful is to make sure that those who are praising the person are not also trying to sell one of his systems on commission as an affiliate. There are some very good horse racing review sites on the Internet and it can be worth checking out any system you are thinking of buying with these.

Horse Racing Handicapping Tip - How to Eliminate Horses From the Race

By Bill Peterson

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Sometimes the best way to describe what we do when we handicap a race is to say that we weed out the legitimate contenders from the phonies or horses that have no chance of winning. To be accurate, any runner in a race does have some chance, but the actual possibility may be so small that it isn't worth considering, that is, unless the odds are right.

As you handicap a horse race you try to put the horses in order from most likely winner to least likely winner. Then, if you really want to make a profit betting on horses, you wait and watch the odds and decide which runner offers the best value. Horse players must not only be good judges of horses, but they must also be good at picking the best bets.

In most races the top 4 horses in the odds, whether it be morning line odds or the odds you see on the tote board at five minutes to post, will include the winner of the race. If you want to save time you'll simply evaluate the top four or five morning line horses and set your own odds then bet them according to what the tote board tells you. Of course, there is always a price to be paid for convenience and speed. You may miss a good long shot bet among the other runners.

Therefore, I recommend that you go the extra distance and look closely at every horse in the race. If you don't have time to handicap all the races, then pick the most promising ones, according to how well you do in different types of races and handicap them first. When you handicap, here is what to look for when throwing out those horses who don't really stand a chance.

Par times are the actual times that horses average when winning at the distance and class. Par speeds are the same. Having a list of par times and speeds will help you to spot horses that have run at the par or higher before. Any horse that has done that should be considered. Any horse that hasn't is on the suspect list. In maiden races or races for horses who are working their way up through non-winner conditions, it is possible that the horse will improve and set a new lifetime par.

In races for older horses, however, those who have never done what is being asked today will probably not be able to win and may be put on the elimination list. Of those who may succeed by improving because they are young and growing, an upward trend in speed and ability should be present, otherwise, eliminate the horse. This is just one of several ways to eliminate horses from your list of contenders.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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