Separating Common Sense From Nonsense in Horse Racing Handicapping

By Bill Peterson

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If you've been going to the races for a while you've probably picked up a little horse racing lore and logic along the way. There are some things that most horse racing handicappers and horse players know that every body at the race track knows and uses to pick winners and find good bets. Fortunately, for a few people, that is, some of that so-called common sense or common knowledge, is hogwash. If you're using it, it could be costing you plenty.

Let's start with one tidbit of information that most horse players know and use when sizing up the runners and trying to find a good bet. "The favorites win about a third of the races."
I like to call this one of those situations where a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. If you look at all the races at a particular track, you will usually find that about 30%-35% are won by the betting favorite in the race. But for those punters who look at the odds board and spot the horse that has the most money bet on it and think that it has a one out of three chance of winning just because the crowd has made it the favorite, they're operating under false information.

The truth of the matter is that there is a wide disparity between winning favorites depending upon the kind of race in question. Breaking it down and looking more closely at the betting choice in each kind of race at almost any race track will reveal some races where the favorites win more than 50% of the races while in others the favorites win only about 10%.

That is a huge difference and if you're relying on the old saw that favorites win about a third of the time, you're in for a shock. Now let's look even closer at this common knowledge. The odds do make a difference, not just to the actual amount paid out to the winners, but also in predicting the horse's chances of winning the race. The lower the odds, the greater the runner's chances of winning.

Diet Exercise and Horse Racing Handicapping - The Connection

By Bill Peterson

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It's amazing how people who handicap horse races spend so much time thinking about the physical condition of the horses and jockeys but who ignore their own health as a factor in success at the races. I know many people don't want to hear that their lifestyle has a direct impact on their success playing the races, but in my opinion, it does.

Horse races are contests. Horse racing handicapping is a contest as well. The person who bets into pari-mutuel pools is competing against all the other people who also bet into the pools. You aren't competing against the race track or horses, you're competing against other people who are doing the same thing you're doing -- trying to make a profit picking winners.

How smart and how well prepared you are will make a big difference, just as it does in any other contest. Professional poker players who play in tournaments know that fatigue plays a big part in finishing well. The players who are able to make good decisions at the end of the tournament are the ones who usually win. Physical fatigue leads to poor judgment and mental errors.

As a handicapper, your best tool is your mind. Physiologist will tell you that cognitive ability declines with poor health. Proper nutrition is a key to a clear well functioning mind. Exercise leads to better blood flow and almost everyone knows how important it is for your brain to get oxygen rich blood in order to function properly.

Just because you sit down to handicap a horse race, it doesn't mean that physical strength and stamina aren't necessary. Think of other contests and sports where the participants sit down and you'll see what I mean. NASCAR drivers sit down and drive a car. It certainly doesn't take much strength to turn a steering wheel, does it?

How To Beat Systems Horse Racing Scams

 by Race Advisor

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Many punters use one system or the other for horse race betting. Many of these systems can be found for sale online, all with glamorous sales pitches with zero to millions promises. How many times have you checked your emails and seen mails with subjects like these?





"Free XYZ system that made $297,569 in one year"






"How ABC system turned former truck driver to instant millionaire?"

Money is something that every human being wants to have in abundance, and the allure of making money without having to work too much for it is what these systems horse racing scammers have used to ensnare people like betting flies to the scammers' naked flames.
Perhaps you may have bought and used many of these betting systems. I have, and I can tell you that many of these systems are bloodsuckers. They suck all your money, and give nothing in return but tears. If you are like me (and I am sure there are tens of thousands the world over with similar experiences), you would have found out that many of these systems are nothing but elaborate scams.


The funny thing is that these systems horse racing scams are thriving, largely due to the fact that more and more otherwise rational men and women cannot resist these salacious headlines and continue to dole out money in the quest for horse race betting's Golden Fleece.

When Horse Racing Handicapping You Should Know the Percentage of Winning Favorites

By Bill Peterson

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Most people believe that the favorite wins a horse race about a third of the time. While many think that is common knowledge and use it to handicap horse races, it is such a broad statement that it often bears little truth. How can that be? You may ask.

The truth is that there are many different kinds of horse races over different surfaces and at a wide range of distances. The percentage of winning favorites, based on those factors, may be as low as a mere 10% to as high as 70%. While the average is somewhere in the middle and probably around a third, it still leaves a lot of room for adjustment and that is exactly what the smart handicapper needs to do.

You need to adjust your methods of evaluating horses and betting on horses in order to take advantage of the public's ability or lack of ability to pick winners. Certainly all the people who represent the public bettors don't bet on the same horse, but the largest percentage of their betting funds will be invested in the favorite.

At the time of the writing of this article, in 6 furlong races at the 25,000 claiming level for 3 year olds at Aqueduct over the inner track, just 10% of favorites have won those races. A full 80% of the winners have been at or below 5-1, however, which shows that second and third favorites have done very well. What does that tell the smart handicapper?