Separating Common Sense From Nonsense in Horse Racing Handicapping

By Bill Peterson

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If you've been going to the races for a while you've probably picked up a little horse racing lore and logic along the way. There are some things that most horse racing handicappers and horse players know that every body at the race track knows and uses to pick winners and find good bets. Fortunately, for a few people, that is, some of that so-called common sense or common knowledge, is hogwash. If you're using it, it could be costing you plenty.

Let's start with one tidbit of information that most horse players know and use when sizing up the runners and trying to find a good bet. "The favorites win about a third of the races."
I like to call this one of those situations where a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. If you look at all the races at a particular track, you will usually find that about 30%-35% are won by the betting favorite in the race. But for those punters who look at the odds board and spot the horse that has the most money bet on it and think that it has a one out of three chance of winning just because the crowd has made it the favorite, they're operating under false information.

The truth of the matter is that there is a wide disparity between winning favorites depending upon the kind of race in question. Breaking it down and looking more closely at the betting choice in each kind of race at almost any race track will reveal some races where the favorites win more than 50% of the races while in others the favorites win only about 10%.

That is a huge difference and if you're relying on the old saw that favorites win about a third of the time, you're in for a shock. Now let's look even closer at this common knowledge. The odds do make a difference, not just to the actual amount paid out to the winners, but also in predicting the horse's chances of winning the race. The lower the odds, the greater the runner's chances of winning.