Horse Racing Handicapping With Track Models and Speed

By Bill Peterson

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The track model is like a road map. It shows the most likely route to the winners circle, but not the only route. It tells you how most of the winners raced, including the beaten lengths at several calls as well as the running style of most of the winners. So in a 6 furlong race for older horses where most of the winners come from a little off the pace, the Early Presser (EP) runner might be 60% and the Early (E) runner might account for 20% of the winners.

That means that horses that take the lead or run very close to it in the early stages of the race win an incredible 80% of the time. That is a very strong speed bias. While that much of a speed bias is rare, it does happen. Speed biases in the 60-70% range are much more common. Don't think that all track models favor speed, however, because some also favor Presser (P) type runners or even Sustained (S) types.

Before you begin to handicap it's a good idea to find out what the track model is for the particular type race you're handicapping. Then evaluate each horse and determine its running style and a likely pace scenario in the race. Do not, however, only focus on the horses that fit the most common winning running style, because things don't always go as planned in a horse race.

Speed and ability are as important as running style and track models. While one horse or more may have the favored running style, another horse with much more ability may still win. If the speed par for the race is 84 and none of the horses who have the favored running style have shown the ability to reach that par, you may find another horse with an unlikely style that will win the race.

After I've handicapped the race I sometimes make a list of the runners with the speed figure I expect from each one for that day. I mark their running preferences beside them and then try to determine a fair price (odds) for each one based on its ability and running style. Then, just before post time, I look for the best value based on the running styles and ability. Remember, if you're serious about succeeding as a handicapper, the goal is not to have the winner of every race, but to win more money than you spend, in other words, to make a profit from your bets.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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