Horse Racing Handicapping With Track Models and Speed

By Bill Peterson

image: depositphotos

The track model is like a road map. It shows the most likely route to the winners circle, but not the only route. It tells you how most of the winners raced, including the beaten lengths at several calls as well as the running style of most of the winners. So in a 6 furlong race for older horses where most of the winners come from a little off the pace, the Early Presser (EP) runner might be 60% and the Early (E) runner might account for 20% of the winners.

That means that horses that take the lead or run very close to it in the early stages of the race win an incredible 80% of the time. That is a very strong speed bias. While that much of a speed bias is rare, it does happen. Speed biases in the 60-70% range are much more common. Don't think that all track models favor speed, however, because some also favor Presser (P) type runners or even Sustained (S) types.

Before you begin to handicap it's a good idea to find out what the track model is for the particular type race you're handicapping. Then evaluate each horse and determine its running style and a likely pace scenario in the race. Do not, however, only focus on the horses that fit the most common winning running style, because things don't always go as planned in a horse race.