Using Horse Racing Trainer Moves the Truth and Fiction for Handicappers

By Bill Peterson

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There's a lot of talk these days about making money betting on horses by using trainer moves. The suppliers of past performances often list them right along with a horses running lines, along with the actual ROI (return on investment) for the specific move. An example would be, down 2 classes +3.10, meaning that when that trainer drops a horse two levels in they win enough to make a tidy profit.

The only problem with this is that like all past performance information, it is a look at the past, not a glimpse into the future. Though you may be using past performances, what you're actually trying to do is to forecast what will happen today. Call it prognostication or fortune telling, or whatever you like, what you're doing is predicting the future.

The reasoning by many is that by looking at what the trainer did in the past you will be able to tell what he or she is likely to do today and of course, the same is true of the horses. The problem with that line of thought is that you can't predict what the bettors will do and their reluctance to back the conditioners other horses in similar situations is the reason they showed a positive ROI.

Are you starting to see where this is going? If you're sitting there reading that this trainer move has a positive expectancy you can bet your sweet racing form that a thousand other would-be handicappers are doing the same thing and thinking that it's going to be as easy as finding money in the street. Wrong.

Good handicappers read the form and see patterns, but great handicappers read the form and predict changes. Betting on what always happens is a waste of time -- you'll rarely get a good value bet. Betting on what hasn't happened yet, but what might happen, is a tougher way to cash tickets, but the tickets you do cash will make a profit in the long run.

While we all use those trainer moves at times, the best way to use them is very sparingly and only when the rest of the field offers no hope. Even then, however, you'll be hard pressed to make a profit with them. The moves that pay the best are the moves that are unexpected or undervalued. If the crowd sees that a trainer wins with a certain move, but it usually is unprofitable in the long run, they are liable to dismiss it as a bad bet.

Think about that for a moment and you'll see that it is possible that those trainer moves with the negative ROI may, in some circumstances, actually be the best moves to bet on.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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