Using Horse Racing Trainer Moves the Truth and Fiction for Handicappers

By Bill Peterson

image: depositphotos

There's a lot of talk these days about making money betting on horses by using trainer moves. The suppliers of past performances often list them right along with a horses running lines, along with the actual ROI (return on investment) for the specific move. An example would be, down 2 classes +3.10, meaning that when that trainer drops a horse two levels in they win enough to make a tidy profit.

The only problem with this is that like all past performance information, it is a look at the past, not a glimpse into the future. Though you may be using past performances, what you're actually trying to do is to forecast what will happen today. Call it prognostication or fortune telling, or whatever you like, what you're doing is predicting the future.

The reasoning by many is that by looking at what the trainer did in the past you will be able to tell what he or she is likely to do today and of course, the same is true of the horses. The problem with that line of thought is that you can't predict what the bettors will do and their reluctance to back the conditioners other horses in similar situations is the reason they showed a positive ROI.

Are you starting to see where this is going? If you're sitting there reading that this trainer move has a positive expectancy you can bet your sweet racing form that a thousand other would-be handicappers are doing the same thing and thinking that it's going to be as easy as finding money in the street. Wrong.