The Key Horse is Still the Secret to Any Good Horse Racing System

By Bill Peterson

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There are just so many ways to bet on horse races and so many ways to make money betting with a good horse racing system. Eventually, it all comes down to finding one good horse(s) to key on whether making a straight win bet or betting exotic wagers. Betting strategy is usually determined by the best value for the money.

For instance, once you have identified the contenders in the race, the next step is to arrive at an idea of how likely each one is to win. You may think horse A. has a 30% chance, horse B. a $25% chance and horse C. a $20% chance. The next step is to turn those percentages into dollar amounts, or pounds, or euros, or whatever the currency is that you are using to make your wagers.

Horse A. would need a payoff of approximately 5-2 to break even or to show a slight profit. Horse B. would require a payoff of at least 3-1 to break even and horse C. would need a payoff of 4-1. If you can't find the right odds in the win pools to make any one of them a good bet, the next place to look, obviously, is the exotic pools.


If you determine that betting certain exactas with horse A. would offer a payoff that would not only offset the 30% win rate, but also offset the strike rate of the second exacta horse, then you have found your bet for the race. If that doesn't happen then horse B. and its exacta and other exotic possibilities must be explored.

The problem, of course, is that when combining your key horse with others in exactas and other exotic wagers, you must then factor in that horse's win and place rate.

After going through your contenders, if you can't find an advantageous wagering situation, then it is time to move on to the next race. The point is, however, that everything depends on that first determination of the expected win rate of the horse or horses that you think have a chance to win the race. Only when you find a horse whose expected success rate and payoff show a profitable situation should you bet. It takes practice and a systematic approach to handicapping to arrive at those values.

The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.

Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, "Horse Racing is in my blood." To see all Bill's horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html, Bill's handicapping store.

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