The Truth About Simple Methods for Picking Horse Racing Winners

By Bill Peterson

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Handicapping horse races can be a very time consuming and frustrating experience. In plain English, picking winners is one of the hardest things some of us ever try and most people lose money at the horse races. While some of us enjoy trying to solve the puzzle of a horse race, at the end of the day, when we've spent so much time and energy, only to have lost money, there is "...no joy in Mudville," as they say.

That's why some people give up and just use the odds on the tote board to try and pick winners. They figure, and rightly so, that the lower the odds on a horse the better its chances of winning. While that is true, it is also a fact that almost all horses go off at close to the correct odds and you will still lose whatever the track take out figure is for win bets at that track.

For instance, if you decide to bet the second favorite in each race and bet ten races, it will average out in the long haul that you've lost about whatever the track's percentage may be. It might vary a little one way or the other, but overall, you'll lose. While it's a nice simple method for picking winners, it's also financially unsound and results in a loss. Not a lot of fun, unless you can convince yourself that losing is fun.

There are simple ways to pick horses that are contenders. The odds show the horses who are likely contenders and at most race tracks the top four horses win about 70% of the races. A study of the different types of races will often show some disparities. For instance, in certain races for maidens the percentage of winning favorites is 40% and the average payoff is quite small.


In races for older claiming horses, on the other hand, the winning favorite percentage is lower and there are more winners at 5-1 or greater so the chances of making money seem better, but that's an illusion because it is harder to determine which horse at those odds is a good bet.

Any simple method that uses just one criteria or factor for evaluating the horses is doomed to be a loser in the long run because horse races are too complex. While you do pick your share of winners using something as simple as the odds or the speed rating of a horse in its last race, the problem is still going to be that the horse has been bet down so that your payoff will not over come the track's take out, or "vig," as it is sometimes called.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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