When Horse Racing Handicapping You Should Know the Percentage of Winning Favorites

By Bill Peterson

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Most people believe that the favorite wins a horse race about a third of the time. While many think that is common knowledge and use it to handicap horse races, it is such a broad statement that it often bears little truth. How can that be? You may ask.

The truth is that there are many different kinds of horse races over different surfaces and at a wide range of distances. The percentage of winning favorites, based on those factors, may be as low as a mere 10% to as high as 70%. While the average is somewhere in the middle and probably around a third, it still leaves a lot of room for adjustment and that is exactly what the smart handicapper needs to do.

You need to adjust your methods of evaluating horses and betting on horses in order to take advantage of the public's ability or lack of ability to pick winners. Certainly all the people who represent the public bettors don't bet on the same horse, but the largest percentage of their betting funds will be invested in the favorite.

At the time of the writing of this article, in 6 furlong races at the 25,000 claiming level for 3 year olds at Aqueduct over the inner track, just 10% of favorites have won those races. A full 80% of the winners have been at or below 5-1, however, which shows that second and third favorites have done very well. What does that tell the smart handicapper?


It shows that the favorites are vulnerable. It also shows that it is possible to play a horse that is almost as good looking on paper as the favorite and to win and possibly to make a profit. When longshots are coming in with little rhyme or reason it's hard to make money, but when those horses that show a bit of run and seem to be contenders win, players looking for value can make a buck or two.

Before you handicap your next races find out what has been winning and how. Look for races where logical contenders are winning and beating favorites. Those races above all others are where you will find good value bets and your strike rate, how often you cash a winning ticket, will be high enough so you don't tap out before cashing.

In races where the win percentage for favorites is very high, look for favorites that are legitimate and have done what is being asked of them in today's race.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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