Easy Winners in Horse Races Start With Handicapping Models

By Bill Peterson

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Most horse races are very difficult to handicap, despite what some wise guys may tell you. While it is true that almost every race has one horse that is bet down to low odds and is therefore the favorite, it doesn't mean that one is a sure winner. No matter which horse you look at in a race, you will usually find it is at about the right odds when you figure in the take out and other factors.

What that means is that the odds reflect the actual chances of a horse winning if you figure in the amount of money taken out of the pools for the track and the state. It's kind of depressing when you think about it because it makes it almost impossible to make a profit. Almost, that is. There are times when a horse will be bet down below its fair value odds and when that happens, another horse must be at profitable odds for the savvy handicapper.

These are the conditions that exist. In most races, little if any chance of profit and no clear cut great bets, but as I said, in most races, but not all races. There are still times when one horse will have an undeniable advantage over the other horses that stands out so clearly that it makes it an easy choice and an easy winner, if it runs true to form, that is.

I'm not talking about a horse with a speed advantage or more class than the other runners, though that helps. I'm talking about a horse that fits the race model while the rest do not. The race model is the running style that wins that particular kind and distance of race at that track. It is a style and the beaten lengths from the leader at the first and second calls that tells the tale.


In most races there will be several horses that fit that model and several others that come close. On top of that, there will be several running styles that could win, but once in a while, if you pay attention to the track model, you'll find a race where only one horse fits and fits so well it is a shoo-in to win. Don't believe it?

On January 19th, 2012 in the third race at Aqueduct, Unbridled Danger was just such a horse. The race was a mile and seventy yard event for 7500 claimers. The track model shows a strong speed bias, meaning that horses with early speed have a distinct advantage. Looking at the field of 8 horses, only one had an early speed running style with a full seven speed points, indicating a lot of early foot. All the other runners showed presser styles or late running styles.

Unbridled Danger went to the front as soon as the gate opened and never looked back, posting an easy victory at better than even odds while never being challenged on the lead. For those who watched the race, it was apparent that Unbridled Danger was far better than the rest, mostly because the others were all so far behind and couldn't make up the ground on a speed favoring track.

The track model showed that the average beaten lengths of winners was 1.7 lengths at the half mile call. Unbridled Danger was a full 4 lengths in front. For handicappers who take the time to familiarize themselves with the track model for each kind of race and then use it, once in a while, an easy winner comes along.

If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/true.html and get the truth about betting on horses and winning. Bill Peterson is a former race horse owner and professional handicapper. To see all Bill's horse racing material go to Horse Racing Handicapping, Bill's handicapping store.

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