Easy Winners in Horse Races Start With Handicapping Models

By Bill Peterson

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Most horse races are very difficult to handicap, despite what some wise guys may tell you. While it is true that almost every race has one horse that is bet down to low odds and is therefore the favorite, it doesn't mean that one is a sure winner. No matter which horse you look at in a race, you will usually find it is at about the right odds when you figure in the take out and other factors.

What that means is that the odds reflect the actual chances of a horse winning if you figure in the amount of money taken out of the pools for the track and the state. It's kind of depressing when you think about it because it makes it almost impossible to make a profit. Almost, that is. There are times when a horse will be bet down below its fair value odds and when that happens, another horse must be at profitable odds for the savvy handicapper.

These are the conditions that exist. In most races, little if any chance of profit and no clear cut great bets, but as I said, in most races, but not all races. There are still times when one horse will have an undeniable advantage over the other horses that stands out so clearly that it makes it an easy choice and an easy winner, if it runs true to form, that is.

I'm not talking about a horse with a speed advantage or more class than the other runners, though that helps. I'm talking about a horse that fits the race model while the rest do not. The race model is the running style that wins that particular kind and distance of race at that track. It is a style and the beaten lengths from the leader at the first and second calls that tells the tale.

Good Horse Racing Systems Have One Factor in Common

By Bill Peterson

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In order to be successful at almost anything in life it is necessary to have a systematic method or way of doing things. There are rare exceptions to this rule, but the more repetitious the endeavor, the more likely it is that the successful people have found a system that works and they use it over and over again. Horse racing is a good example.

Trainers who are successful at getting their horses in condition and winning with them have a systematic way of conditioning the horses and then entering them to win. The horses themselves have a systematic way of running.

Some win by being front runners and others by coming from off the pace. Then there are those who come from far back and close with a rush, but the one thing they all have in common is that they use their own method over and over again.

The same can be said for people who bet on the horses. The really successful people who wager on horse races must work very hard and then there are no guarantees. It is one of the most difficult ways to make money, and yet a few rare souls actually do just that. Do you think that each time they win it is in a different way or that each one has found a method that works for him or her?

When Horse Racing Handicapping You Should Know the Percentage of Winning Favorites

By Bill Peterson

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Most people believe that the favorite wins a horse race about a third of the time. While many think that is common knowledge and use it to handicap horse races, it is such a broad statement that it often bears little truth. How can that be? You may ask.

The truth is that there are many different kinds of horse races over different surfaces and at a wide range of distances. The percentage of winning favorites, based on those factors, may be as low as a mere 10% to as high as 70%. While the average is somewhere in the middle and probably around a third, it still leaves a lot of room for adjustment and that is exactly what the smart handicapper needs to do.

You need to adjust your methods of evaluating horses and betting on horses in order to take advantage of the public's ability or lack of ability to pick winners. Certainly all the people who represent the public bettors don't bet on the same horse, but the largest percentage of their betting funds will be invested in the favorite.

At the time of the writing of this article, in 6 furlong races at the 25,000 claiming level for 3 year olds at Aqueduct over the inner track, just 10% of favorites have won those races. A full 80% of the winners have been at or below 5-1, however, which shows that second and third favorites have done very well. What does that tell the smart handicapper?

The Key Horse is Still the Secret to Any Good Horse Racing System

By Bill Peterson

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There are just so many ways to bet on horse races and so many ways to make money betting with a good horse racing system. Eventually, it all comes down to finding one good horse(s) to key on whether making a straight win bet or betting exotic wagers. Betting strategy is usually determined by the best value for the money.

For instance, once you have identified the contenders in the race, the next step is to arrive at an idea of how likely each one is to win. You may think horse A. has a 30% chance, horse B. a $25% chance and horse C. a $20% chance. The next step is to turn those percentages into dollar amounts, or pounds, or euros, or whatever the currency is that you are using to make your wagers.

Horse A. would need a payoff of approximately 5-2 to break even or to show a slight profit. Horse B. would require a payoff of at least 3-1 to break even and horse C. would need a payoff of 4-1. If you can't find the right odds in the win pools to make any one of them a good bet, the next place to look, obviously, is the exotic pools.

Taking Money From Dummies at the Racetrack

By Dave C Williams

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Believe it or not, most people do not understand how betting on horses actually works. The average person thinks that they are betting against the racetrack. That is understandable. When you make a bet at the racetrack you hand your money to the person who works at the betting window, and if you win, they hand it back to you.

What they are really doing is pooling all of the money that has been bet on a race, and then handing it out to the winners when the race is over. They take a cut (usually around 19% of the total) but they have no interest in who wins or loses the race. They make their money no matter who wins. When you win a race, your winnings come from the players who made losing bets. When you lose your money is divided up among the winners.

Smart guys win, dumb guys lose.

Make a visit to your local racetrack one weekend and take a look around at the people who are there. The racetrack is a microcosm of society. You will see very wealthy horse owners in the paddock with their horses, average middle class people enjoying an afternoon outdoors, and more than a few people who look like they don't know where their next meal is coming from. All of them are players in this game and it is your goal to take their money.

The Magic Horse Racing Betting Formula for Profit

By Bill Peterson

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There is no magic formula for picking winners, but there is a method of making a profit from horse racing bets. That may sound contradictory, but it's not, because there is a difference between picking winning horses and picking good bets. The difference between a horse player who looks for winners and a horse player who looks for good bets is the difference between a successful gambler and a gambler.

Regular gamblers take some comfort in being right and sometimes they even take comfort in commiserating with other losing gamblers. Winning gamblers take comfort in making a profit and usually keep their ROI and other secrets to themselves. You'll hear a lot of horse players complaining about how hard it is to make a profit or about the losing streak they're on, but you'll rarely if ever hear one talking about his positive return or method of picking those good bets.

Let's be clear on what a good bet is before we talk about the magic formula for determining that bet. A good wager is one that will show a positive return over the course of a season or a meet. That means that is you make the same bet under the same circumstances at the same track, it will pay you back all the money that you bet plus a profit.

I realize how difficult it is to find such bets, so please don't think I'm being glib. Making money wagering on horse races is one of the toughest things most of us will ever tackle. It requires certain skills, such as good math skills and the ability to keep accurate notes, whether by using a good computer program of just keeping hard copies that you jot down. Fortunately, a lot of the record keeping is now done by the major suppliers of past performances.

Finding Good Bets With Horse Racing Jockey Changes That Lead to Winners

By Bill Peterson

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Following a horse through its career is one way to cash winning tickets. Very few handicappers actually do this, but it is a solid way to make money betting on horses. Of course, you have to have some knowledge of training and horse racing to be successful. If you understand what a trainer is doing with a horse then you will understand that some races are for exercise and conditioning while other races are meant for a real serious effort to win.

The problem with that method of making money betting on horses is that you have to follow quite a few horses in order to make any real money. You may have to wait weeks between races and that can get tedious, especially if the horse is in races where it can't win.

That's why more handicappers follow trainers or jockeys. Most good jockeys race almost every day, making for a lot of action. Learning the strengths and weaknesses of a few good jockeys and then following them can lead to some very good bets. I like to check to see when a good rider is on a horse that he has won with in the past. That's a big advantage.

When a trainer claims a horse and his regular rider happens to be a jockey who has won with that one before, that can often signal a good ride and a finish in the money if not in the winners circle. Some of the leading suppliers of past performances now supply that information which shows whether the trainer has won with the horse and also whether the jockey has won with it in the past.

Most of the opportunities for good bets will come in the claiming races, if you decide to use this method of finding winners. Start by noting all the horses that have been claimed in their last few races. Then note who was riding it before it was claimed and whether the jockey who is on it today has won with it before. Note the same for the trainer.