Horse Racing Handicapping With Track Models and Speed

By Bill Peterson

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The track model is like a road map. It shows the most likely route to the winners circle, but not the only route. It tells you how most of the winners raced, including the beaten lengths at several calls as well as the running style of most of the winners. So in a 6 furlong race for older horses where most of the winners come from a little off the pace, the Early Presser (EP) runner might be 60% and the Early (E) runner might account for 20% of the winners.

That means that horses that take the lead or run very close to it in the early stages of the race win an incredible 80% of the time. That is a very strong speed bias. While that much of a speed bias is rare, it does happen. Speed biases in the 60-70% range are much more common. Don't think that all track models favor speed, however, because some also favor Presser (P) type runners or even Sustained (S) types.

Before you begin to handicap it's a good idea to find out what the track model is for the particular type race you're handicapping. Then evaluate each horse and determine its running style and a likely pace scenario in the race. Do not, however, only focus on the horses that fit the most common winning running style, because things don't always go as planned in a horse race.

Horse Racing Tips From the Stable Cat

By Bill Peterson

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Don't you wish you could get inside tips about the horses that would allow you to know when one was ready to win, or perhaps, when the favorite was off his feed and not likely to win? They used to say the stable cat was the best handicapper because he lived with the horses. That was probably true, but I've never seen a feline in the betting lines.

Inside information, however, can be dynamite, but you have to know how to get it and when to use it and when to pass it up. That comes down to discretion on your part. I've had a lot of trainers tell me their horse was a cinch to win, only to see it lose. Now when a trainer or owner tells me a horse is a sure thing, I know that the jockey will probably try to win with it, but that it can still be beaten because another trainer may feel the same way about his horse.

The truth of the matter is, thought the human connections may have their own ideas, the animals themselves are the real key to how they will race. The single most important tip you can get on any race is how the money is flowing and for that you have to watch the pools and know what to look for.

The second most important information is on the race track in front of you. I'm talking about the horses themselves. Being able to spot one that is washy or too dry and dull is one of the greatest assets a handicapper can have. Horse racing handicapping isn't just about the figures and past performance lines on paper. The real story, the present, not the past, is out on the track or in the paddock before the race.

Is Horse Racing Handicapping Easier With a Computer

By Bill Peterson

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The computer age has changed our lives in unimaginable ways. Who knew just a few decades ago that we would be carrying around phones that we could send messages with, surf the internet with, and use as a gps.
Those are just a few of the uses of today's modern techno gadgets that really do seem to make life easier. But do those gadgets enable us to handicap a race any better, and if so, are we making more money as handicappers?

In my experience the answer is that while we do have more information at our finger tips, there is still little profit to be made picking winners. It may be possible, but it isn't easy to make a profit betting on horses, and you're hearing that from a man who teaches people how to handicap the races. I make my living from horse racing, but I don't sugar coat it.

While the amount of information that is available has certainly increased, that information is available to any one who seeks it. The trick to making money betting on horse races isn't just to have more information, it is to have more and better information than the other guy or to use your information better than he does.

After all, let's be honest, we're each trying to beat the rest of the crowd when we bet on a race unless we're in a place where book making is legal, in which case we may be trying to beat an odds maker. Whatever the case may be, horse racing handicapping is about beating other people, being better at spotting a value bet, of evaluating the runners.