How to Pick a Winner at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival

By Damian Carvill

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Whether or not you're lucky enough to attend this year's Cheltenham Festival, you can still take advantage of adding extra excitement to the races by placing a bet. Whether you're a novice punter or seasoned better, picking a winner from a field of contenders isn't easy. First there's the different odds, then there's the jockeys, the form and of course, the horse's names.
So with so much to consider, how do you pick the winning horse? By the time you've finished reading this guide, you will be better placed to identify a horse that may win you the race.

Understand the Odds
Alongside the Grand National and Ascot, the Cheltenham Gold Cup attracts a huge amount of interest and bets from fans and non-fans of horse racing. However many see the process of betting, with varying odds and different stake options, to be too complicated and daunting to pursue. Understanding the odds and how to place a bet is the first step on the road to picking a winner and netting a tidy sum of money.
Regardless of what John McCririck might suggest, sporting odds are actually quite easy to understand. The two different numbers that you will see next to a horse's name relate to how probable that horse is to win that race. The shorter the odds, or the lower the numbers, the greater its chance of winning. These numbers are separated by a slash and referred to as being one number to another, for example 10/1 or ten to one.

When a horse is favourite to win a race, or odds on, a bookmaker regards its chances of winning the race as better than 50%. This is when you see larger numbers as the second number in the horse's odds, like 1/2.

How much will I win?
So let's say you have �10 to bet, how much will that win you, should your horse come home first? Again, this is quite easy to calculate. If, when you place your �10 bet, the horse's odds are 5-1, you will win �10 X 5, plus your original stake back to make a total of �60.
If your horse is described as evens, that means the bookmaker believes your horse has a 50:50 chance of winning the race, or 1/1. So with your �10, you will win �10 X 1 plus your original �10 stake to make a total of �20.
Sometimes you may see odds that don't end in a one, like 7/2. As odds are written as fractions, they don't include numbers with a decimal point. Therefore, 7/2 is actually 3.5 to 1.
When your horse is odds on, say 1/4, your �10 bet will win, as normal, your �10 back plus 10 X 0.25 (or a quarter of the evens odds), which is �2.50. Therefore you will take away �12.50 in total.

To win or each way?
When you place your bet you have the opportunity to bet on the horse to win outright or to finish in the top three, or 'each way'. The examples given above are all based on your horse winning and you betting on it to win outright. If you decided to hedge your bet and go each way, you are actually placing two bets, one on the horse to win and another, equal sized bet, to finish second or third (and in some cases, but not at Cheltenham, fourth). Therefore, if you had �10 to bet, you would bet �5 each way, making a total of �10, spread across the two bets.
Your first bet at �5, on the horse to win, would pay out as above. Therefore on a horse backed at 5-1, you would win your stake back plus 5x5, to total �30. The second part of the bet is a little more complicated and depends on the number of horses in the race.
If there are 16 horses running, the bookmaker will pay out up until the fourth horse. If your horse finishes fourth, you will receive one quarter of the odds plus your stake back. For races with 12-15 horses, this goes up to third with third place getting one quarter of the odds too. For 8-11 runners, a bookmaker will pay out to third place with that horse receiving one fifth of the odds. When there is 5-7 horses in a race, you will only get a pay out if your horse wins or comes second, with the second placed horse getting one quarter of the odds.

So, if you bet on the Gold Cup, which is likely to have more than 16 entrants and your horse places second, or third, your total would be reduced by a half or a third of the total. Therefore, using the same bet and odds as before, you would receive your stake back, plus 5x2.5 to make a total of �17.50 if your horse finished second and 5x1.666 (that is, one third of your �5 bet) plus your stake back to make �13.33.
The first part of the bet is straightforward. It will give a return only if the selection comes in first, paying �5 for every �2 wagered, or �25 in winnings plus the original �10 returned. This is no different in any way from simply betting on the horse to win. Should the horse finish anywhere but first, the �10 will be lost.
The second part of the bet is a bit more complicated. It depends mainly upon the number of runners starting the race, and also whether or not it is run as a handicap. For 5~7 runners, the place bet pays only for a finish in the top two and a one-quarter of the win odds. For eight or more runners, it will pay for a top-three finisher at one-fifth the win odds. But in handicaps with 12~15 runners, it pays one-quarter odds for the top three places, and in handicaps with sixteen or more running, it pays for a top-four finisher at one quarter odds.

Assuming the winning horse selected led a field of ten in a non-handicap event, the place bet would pay one fifth of the 5/2 odds, equivalent to 1/2 or �1 for every �2 bet-a total of �5 in winnings plus the �10 returned. What started as �20 wagered would amount to �50 when the winnings are claimed.
However, if the favoured horse loses by a nose, and the �10 win bet is forfeited, all is not lost. The place bet will still return �5 in winnings plus the �10 wager, so the net loss would be just �5. In this sense, each way betting is a hedge against misadventure. And when the win odds are 8/1, 10/1, or higher, it can yield a profit even if the chosen horse comes in second, third, or in some cases even fourth, allowing wagers to be made on long shots with some confidence.

Do favourites always win?
Of course favourites don't always win, otherwise gambling would be easy and bookies would be poor. Unfortunately, gambling isn't easy and bookies are rich. Studies suggest that the favourite wins around 40% of the time, which means that 60% of the time, a horse with longer odds will win the race.
Although the favourite only wins 40% of the time, the chances of a horse with shorter odds winning the race are over 90%. Therefore, the first lesson in learning how to pick a winner, is to stay away from the horses with long odds. A rough rule of thumb is that anything 40-1 or more is going to have to run the race of their life if they're to win. Ideally, stay at 20-1 or less.

The horse's form
From the end of the previous year, trainers will be prepping their horse for Cheltenham and entering them in races that will stand them in good stead for the big one. While many of these are gentle run outs, there are a number of top-class races including the Gold Cup warm-up at Newbury in February. Studying the races that feature more than one of the horses that will take part at Cheltenham may be the best indicator of form.

The trainer and the jockey
Possibly the best way to select a winner is to see who is riding the horse and who trains it. Certain jockeys and trainers seem to love Cheltenham and always do well there. The one jockey that never fails to disappoint is Ruby Walsh. With six top jockey awards in the last eight years, there are few who can compete with Walsh and his record total of 30 winners at the Cheltenham Festival.
When it comes to trainers, the top spot is more competitive with a number of consistent and successful festivals over the years. The ones to look out for are Paul Nicholls, who has the aforementioned Ruby Walsh as his number one jockey, and is one of the most successful trainers in the sport. In 2010, Nicky Henderson became the trainer with the most wins at Cheltenham and counts Barry Geraghty, the 2003 top jockey at the festival, as his main partner.

When the going gets tough
You may have heard the term 'the going' in relation to horse racing before and may be aware that it's related to the condition of the ground on which the race will take place. If it has rained heavily the night before, the track might be considered soft, or even heavy. If it's been dry for a long time it might be hard or firm.
Different horses are suited to different conditions and so it's wise to check the going before picking your horse. Big strong horses are able to battle through heavier conditions, whereas the leaner, faster horses prefer harder conditions. Note that French horses are often bred to run on harder ground and so suit those conditions better than they do when it's heavy.
It's also worth noting that when conditions are heavy, the field is often brought a lot closer together and becomes more of a free-for-all. Therefore, horses with longer odds tend to do better. Having said that, class does prevail!

Damian writes for Gold Cup, which is dedicated to the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

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